The Geopolitics of Space
In short
Investors voted for European launch and almost none would fund it
Nick Gosen and Paul Eisenberg had investors stand up for what Europe must own in space, then asked where each would put 100 million.
Everyone stood up when Nick Gosen of KOMPAS VC asked whether Europe needs its own launch capacity. Everyone stood again for European military space capability. Then the hosts handed each participant an imaginary 100 million to put into one segment of the space economy. Launch drew almost nobody, and defence found no takers. Europe must own these things, they agreed. Few thought their own funds were the ones to pay for them.
Nick had come to make the constructive case for European space. Paul Eisenberg of Extantia, who has found space hard to invest in, played the sceptic.
Access on someone else's terms
Nick listed the warnings. In the past five years Starlink, Planet Labs and others have restricted European access, through company decisions or government mandate. SpaceX and Blue Origin pulled out of this year's Paris Space Summit because, Nick said, Trump told them not to endorse European initiatives. ESA gave its first in-orbit refuelling demonstration to a US company, and IRIS², Europe's planned answer to Starlink, ordered satellite components from the Californian start-up K2 Space because European suppliers were too slow. On the positive side, Isar Aerospace reached space for the first time earlier this month.
A British investor offered the nuclear deterrent as a guide. The UK's Trident is built on US technology. France built its own, which the rest of the world found strange for decades, and Europe's nuclear umbrella may now rest on the French system. By the same logic, the investor said, Europe must control its communications end to end, including the ability to launch replacement satellites. Communications mattered more to them than launch itself.
The money is in the wrong rounds
Paul set public money against private. About 30 billion of new public funding for space was announced this year, against about 4 billion of private investment, and 58% of the new money went to rounds of 100 million or more. Only 8% went to rounds of 15 million or less. Nick called that the wrong way round. European investors lack the appetite because they do not yet believe European space has a future, Nick said, and KOMPAS itself had backed a US company, so it was also up to investors like them to become more bullish.
The only founder present wanted less of the state. "Get out of the way. Let us do our thing." Capital comes to start-ups that can show a path to a 50-billion company, the founder said, and ten founders trying to solve geopolitics will not get there. When an investor asked whether public funding should require European suppliers and launchers, the founder shook their head.
I don't want Elon to decide if I have internet.
Launch after the rideshare freeze
SpaceX has stopped taking rideshare customers until 2028, and many start-ups had pitched on falling rideshare prices. A satellite operator at the session had booked a slot at the end of 2027 on the last announced Falcon rideshare and was looking at alternatives for the rest of the constellation. Indian and Chinese rockets cost about the same, the operator said, and Rocket Lab a bit more but with more flexibility, though Chinese launches bring export controls. Track record weighs heavily. Early in their career, the operator had watched a satellite they worked on blow up on the launch pad.
Need is not a thesis
The votes showed the gap. Fewer stood when asked whether Europe would have a globally competitive launcher by 2035, though the founder did. Paul said European engineers are as good, but bureaucracy and national interests slow execution. On broadband, Starlink has about 8,000 satellites and IRIS² plans 290 by 2030. One participant expected Europe to pour money in if geopolitics gets worse. "I don't want Elon to decide if I have internet." Another put Earth observation, where Europe already has strong companies, low on the list.
Defence is where need and investability part most sharply. Germany has earmarked 35 billion for military space technology and France 4.2 billion, Nick said, but European investors hesitate over dual use. KOMPAS's US investment came with severe limits on information rights, and a European scheme to vet investors, due to take effect in 2028, may add more friction. An investor whose fund does not invest in defence said even Earth observation is partly defence, and asked whether that work should be paid for by venture capital or by governments.
When the imaginary 100 million came round, broadband drew a small minority. Sovereignty aside, one of them said, it makes money and can return a fund. An investor at a seed-to-Series B fund said the wave in launch and satellite manufacturing has already come and gone for funds their size. They would spread the money across in-orbit servicing, where rounds are smaller and less crowded, edge compute and components. Another added space-based power and lunar infrastructure. One participant thought the difference was ambition. While Europe works out how to build reusable launchers, US pitches already promise to undercut SpaceX's price by a factor of four.
At the start, three or four people expected a European space company worth more than 50 billion by 2035. When Paul asked again at the close, more stood up, and the sceptic joked that if they gave the hosts all their money, they would make it happen. The optimism had grown. The money for launch and defence, it seemed, was still expected to come from somewhere else.
This Ripple was hosted by Nick Gosen (KOMPAS VC) and Paul Eisenberg (Extantia) at The Drop 2026 on 16 September.